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.But the aging Chinese president was not just dishingrhetoric when he summed up the change at a news conference with Bushin 2002. China and the United States now have more rather than lessshared interests. y 246 At War with OurselvesWill such encumbrances help to avert a U.S. China clash over Tai-wan? Will they prevent China from becoming a twenty-first-century ide-ological foe, and today s strained engagement from turning into anotherCold War? We don t know for sure.What we do know is that the globalsystem and its constraints are probably the only thing standing betweensome kind of cold war and a safer, if less well defined, relationship.We live in a world where Russia, too, someday is going to want toresume great power status and throw its weight around Eurasia.Already itis making some trouble in Afghanistan, funneling weapons to the North-ern Alliance faction in the new government, playing a latter-day versionof the great game. Their agenda is to ensure that Western powers stayaway from central Asia, one Afghan source suggested to me when I wasthere.Washington will voice its objections to meddling by Moscow, and itshould.Russia, like China, will also make trouble for Washington in theUN Security Council, as it did by resisting a U.S.military campaignagainst Iraq.But these are headaches, not major crises.We must expectthem, and we can afford to let them happen as long as Russia remainsunder the broader tent of globalism.Vladimir Putin knows that there isno alternative to joining the international system; in a speech to theDuma in 2002 he explicitly tied Russia s future to its integration into theglobal economy.In other words, while in many areas, such as nation building, we Amer-icans must be far more involved, in a world so dominated by Americanpower and an international system that is for the most part conforming toour interests, we can relax a little about the various actions of differentpowers within the overall strategic picture.In a world that is tendingtoward democracy and open markets, it is no longer as necessary for theUnited States to be in the forefront of values promotion.Staying behindthe scenes, prodding or remonstrating with countries that resist, will bemuch more effective in the long run than standing on a soapbox and get-ting tangled up in our own hypocrisy, as we inevitably will.Regional polic-ing helps that along.So does the Bush administration s idea of buildingself-relianceÞöfor example, by focusing on the construction of an Afghannational army (as long as it supplies sufficient aid).Economic reform inthe Arab world will help as well; it may take many generations, but weneed not hurry the process along as long as we can maintain stability and Toward a New Consensus 247hunt down disaffected groups like al-Qaeda.This can be a virtuous cycle,and it can continue indefinitelyÞöas long as we get the details right.Simple diplomacy can do wonders to ensure that these countriesremain part of the international community.The Bush administrationunilateralists could help to make U.S.hegemony much more palatablemerely by talking more multilaterally, even as they continue to behaveunilaterally.Saving face still matters a lot in international relations.Kings,emperors, and autocrats once went to war over snubs by rival monarchsor, in the case of Kaiser Wilhelm, to gratify their egos.Today, in a worldlargely defined by great-power democracy (with the signal exception ofChina), that fear of precipitous war has receded.Realist scholars continueto debate a central tenet of the liberal program going back to KantÞöthatdemocracies are less likely to wage warÞöbut the global landscape effec-tively proves the point. Face still counts, except now it is popular sup-port, rather than ego, that has become a driving force in how nationsbehave.And elected leaders in other countries will not want to suffer aloss of face in being forced to bow publicly to the überpower.Where do we have to work hardest to give other leaders multilateralcover? In addressing the No.1 threat to Americans for decades to come:stopping the spread of nuclear weapons that might fall into terroristhands.The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, one of the few arms con-trols accords that Bush still had some use for, was built on a bargain thatrequired considerable diplomatic fudging.It still does.In effect since1970, the NPT permitted the already-declared nuclear states, America,Russia, Britain, France, and China, to keep their nuclear arsenals whileforbidding these weapons to everyone elseÞöas long as all parties wouldstrive in good faith to achieve nuclear disarmament.That is one reasonwhy a later pact, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, was so important tomuch of the world: It was seen as a confidence builder that all nationswere eventually working toward this goal.The NPT bargain permittedother states to forgo the expense of developing nuclear weapons and gainaccess to civilian nuclear power.Yet these states would agree to do so onlyif they felt secure enough in the global system.It was this internationalconsensus that gave the Bush administration the legitimacy to demandthat Iraq and North Korea dismantle their programs: Each country was inviolation of its pledge to stay nuke-free as an NPT signatory.And it was 248 At War with Ourselvesthis international consensus that gave Bush the global support he neededto see the ultimatum through.Here was international law at work.In truth, none of the legitimate nuclear arms states, including theUnited States, intends to fully dismantle its nuclear arsenal (even underthe test-ban treaty, Washington can do nuclear stockpile maintenance Þöupgrade its arsenalÞöwith virtual testing on supercomputers).But thenon-nuclear states, to save face, insist that the nuclear states at least con-tinue to say they plan to observe the letter of the NPT.This diplomaticsolution has worked, for the most part Þöat least until now.With onlythree exceptions ÞöIsrael, which is in a uniquely hostile situation, sur-rounded by enemy states, and India and Pakistan, two nations engaged inan unusually tense rivalryÞöevery nation on earth has now signed theNPT, and most continue to show little interest in developing nuclearweapons
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