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.S.policy.The democratization process in Turkey overrobin-bobinthe last several decades has opened up opportunities for new groups,some of them Islamist, to enter the political arena and has eroded theability of the traditional Kemalist elite to direct and manage Turkishforeign policy.Today, political debate in Turkey is a much more openand diverse than it was 20 or 30 years ago.At the same time, as newpolitical forces and actors enter the political arena, tensions betweensecularists and Islamists are likely to grow, leading to greater internalstrains and political polarization.Turkey also faces an important change of political leadership.Theolder political leaders who guided Turkish policy for much of the ColdWar era, such as Sulyman Demirel and Bulent Ecevit, are fading fromthe political scene.Policymakers in the United States will need to reachout to a new generation of Turkish politicians whose worldview willbe quite different both from that of the United States and that of theirpredecessors.Finally, the role of the Turkish military is changing.For the past70 years, the military has acted as the custodian of Turkish democ-ROBIN-BOBINROBIN-BOBIN32 Turkey as a U.S.Security Partnerracy, exerting a strong political role behind the scenes and interveningwhen it thought democracy and secularism were threatened.The dem-ocratic reforms introduced in the past decade or so, especially those theErdogan government has introduced, have reduced the power of themilitary to intrude in politics.2 However, as the military s midnightmemorandum at the end of April 2007 underscores, the militarycontinues to regard itself as the ultimate guardian of Turkey s secularorder.3 Whether the military will be willing to accept a significantlydiminished political role, as required for EU membership, is an openquestion and likely to be one of the critical issues affecting Turkey spolitical evolution in the coming decade.2For a detailed discussion, see Gareth Jenkins, Continuity and Change: Prospectsfor Civil-Military Relations in Turkey, International Affairs, Vol.83, No.2, 2007, pp.339 355.3The veiled threat of a coup in the April 27, 2007, memorandum from the Turkish GeneralStaff might seem at first glance to suggest that the military might play a larger political rolein the future.However, the negative public reaction to the memorandum reflected in thepress and the slogan of many street demonstrations, neither Sharia nor coup caught themilitary leaders by surprise and is likely to make the them cautious about intervening in therobin-bobinpolitical process in the future.ROBIN-BOBINROBIN-BOBINBibliographyAliriza, Bulent, and Seda Ciftci, The Train to Europe Stalls, Turkey Update,Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 18,2006.Asmus, Ronald D., and Richard C.Holbrooke, Re-Reinventing NATO,presented at the 2006 Riga Conference, Riga, Latvia, 27 29 November 2006,Washington, D.C.: German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2006.Baker, James A., III, Lee H.Hamilton, et al., The Iraq Study Group Report,Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, December 6, 2006.Barkley, Henri J., and Graham E.Fuller, Turkey s Kurdish Question, New York:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 1998.robin-bobinCarkoglu, Ali, and Binnaz Toprak, Degosen Turkiye de Din, Toplum ve Siyaset,Istanbul: TESEV Yayiniari, November 2006.Candar, Cengiz, Turkey Needs to Approach Arbil for Oil Exportation, TurkishDaily News, March 19, 2007.Demirtas, Serkan, Security Chiefs Nix Barzani Talks, Turkish Daily News,March 3 4, 2007. Erdogan: Unfair War in Lebanon Will Have No Winner, Turkish Daily News,August 4, 2006.German Marshall Fund of the United States, et al., Transatlantic Trends: KeyFindings 2006, Washington D.C., 2006. Israel, Turkey, US to Hold Joint Military Exercises, Agence France-Presse,August 14, 2007. Israeli Operation Draws Ire in Turkey, The Probe, May 23, 2004. The JDP Failure to Elect a President Triggers a New Test for TurkishDemocracy, Turkey Update, Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic andInternational Studies, May 14, 2007.Jenkins, Gareth, Continuity and Change: Prospects for Civil-Military Relationsin Turkey, International Affairs, Vol.83, No.2, 2007
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